Yekoi · Wyckoff

EVIDENCE BEFORE ANSWER

不猜下一根 K 线，只判断证据走到哪里Do not guess the next bar—judge how far the evidence goes

每道题都刻意停在某个历史时点。先独立选择，再查看为什么、失效条件和对应案例；后来的结果不会替你完成当时的分析。Each exercise stops at a historical moment. Choose independently before revealing the reasoning, invalidation, and related case. The later outcome cannot complete the earlier analysis for you.

01先判断位置Locate first
02再描述证据Describe evidence
03写出失效条件Define invalidation
04最后才看结果Reveal outcome last

STRUCTURE JUDGMENT LAB

十二个情景，先独立判断再看答案Twelve scenarios—judge first, reveal later

所有情景均为历史研究与方法练习，不提供实时方向。正确答案不是形态名称，而是当前证据允许你走到哪一步。Every scenario is for historical study and method practice, not a current market view. The answer is the furthest conclusion the evidence permits.

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判断维度Categories
01吸筹Accumulation

基础Foundation

下跌停止以后，能否直接定义底部？Can a bottom be declared as soon as the decline stops?

历史情景Historical scenario

持续下跌后出现宽价差、高成交量的恐慌抛售，随后快速自然反弹。第一次回落没有跌破恐慌低点，成交量有所收缩。After a persistent decline, a wide-spread, high-volume selloff is followed by a sharp automatic rally. The first reaction holds above the panic low on lower volume.

  1. 01原趋势仍然是下跌。The prior trend is still down.
  2. 02出现潜在 SC 与 AR。A potential SC and AR have appeared.
  3. 03第一次 ST 暂时守住低点。The first ST has held the low for now.
  4. 04还没有 SOS 或离开区间。There is no SOS or departure from the range yet.
此时最严谨的结构结论是什么？What is the most rigorous structural conclusion at this point?

提示：不要选择最有想象力的答案，只选择当前证据已经完成的那一步。Tip: do not choose the most exciting answer—choose only the step already completed by the evidence.

02吸筹Accumulation

进阶Intermediate

短暂下破并收回，是 Spring 还是假设？Is a brief break and recovery a Spring or only a hypothesis?

历史情景Historical scenario

价格在低位区间运行一段时间后短暂跌破支撑，迅速收回区间。随后测试的下跌价差收窄、成交量下降，但尚未突破上方阻力。After spending time in a low trading range, price briefly breaks support and quickly returns. The subsequent test narrows on lower volume, but the upper boundary has not been broken.

  1. 01越界后迅速收回。Price quickly returns after crossing the boundary.
  2. 02测试阶段供应收缩。Supply contracts during the test.
  3. 03尚未出现有效 SOS。There is no effective SOS yet.
  4. 04上边界仍是必须验证的阻力。The upper boundary remains resistance that must be validated.
应该如何给当前状态命名？How should the current state be labeled?
03派发Distribution

基础Foundation

高位横盘，为什么不能只凭位置看空？Why is high location alone insufficient for a bearish call?

历史情景Historical scenario

持续上涨后进入高位区间。上冲成交量放大但推进距离缩短，数次回落都快速拉回，区间下边界尚未失守。After a persistent advance, price enters a high range. Upthrusts show more volume but less progress, yet several reactions recover quickly and the lower boundary still holds.

  1. 01高位位置增加派发可能性。High location increases the possibility of distribution.
  2. 02需求推进效率下降。Demand is becoming less efficient.
  3. 03下边界仍未出现 SOW。There is no SOW through the lower boundary.
  4. 04需求仍能在回落后恢复价格。Demand still restores price after reactions.
此时最合理的判断是什么？What is the most reasonable interpretation?
04派发Distribution

进阶Intermediate

突破失败以后，什么时候才接近 UTAD？When does a failed breakout become a credible UTAD?

历史情景Historical scenario

价格突破高位区间上边界后没有延续，迅速收回。二次上冲量能更低、价差更窄，随后出现宽价差下跌，但仍未回测上边界。Price breaks above a high range but fails to follow through and quickly returns. A second rally is narrower on lower volume, followed by a wide-spread decline, but the upper boundary has not yet been retested.

  1. 01上方越界失败并收回。The upside boundary break fails and returns.
  2. 02第二次上冲需求减弱。Demand weakens on the second rally.
  3. 03供应开始产生向下结果。Supply begins to produce downside result.
  4. 04LPSY 回测仍待确认。The LPSY retest is still pending.
当前最合适的状态标签是什么？What is the best current status label?
05再吸筹Reaccumulation

进阶Intermediate

上涨趋势中的深回落，如何区分再吸筹与转弱？How can a deep pullback inside an uptrend be separated from true weakness?

历史情景Historical scenario

大级别上涨后进入横盘，区间内多次下测都被收回。一次深度 Shakeout 跌破支撑后快速反弹，随后 SOS 突破阻力，LPS 回测缩量守住。After a higher-timeframe advance, price ranges and repeatedly rejects lower tests. A deep Shakeout breaks support and recovers, followed by an SOS and a lower-volume LPS that holds.

  1. 01前置趋势向上。The prior trend is up.
  2. 02下边界供应多次无法延续。Supply repeatedly fails to follow through at the lower boundary.
  3. 03SOS 产生有效向上结果。The SOS produces meaningful upside result.
  4. 04LPS 回测守住阻力转换区。The LPS holds the former resistance area.
哪一个结构解释拥有最完整的证据链？Which structural interpretation has the most complete evidence chain?
06失败再吸筹Failed reaccumulation

进阶Intermediate

突破没有跟随，原来的再吸筹判断怎么办？What happens to a reaccumulation thesis when the breakout has no follow-through?

历史情景Historical scenario

上涨趋势中的区间向上突破，但成交量没有增加，连续两次回测都重新进入区间。第二次回落跌破中轴，反弹无法回到原阻力上方。A range inside an uptrend breaks upward without volume expansion. Two retests return into the range; the second reaction breaks the midpoint and the rally cannot reclaim former resistance.

  1. 01突破缺乏需求跟随。The breakout lacks demand follow-through.
  2. 02两次回测都重新接受区间内部价格。Both retests regain acceptance inside the range.
  3. 03波段高点与低点开始降低。Swing highs and lows begin to fall.
  4. 04原 LPS 已无法承担支撑任务。The original LPS no longer performs as support.
对原判断最合适的处理是什么？What is the best treatment of the original thesis?
07再派发Redistribution

进阶Intermediate

下跌后的横盘，是吸筹还是再派发？Is the range after a decline accumulation or redistribution?

历史情景Historical scenario

大级别下跌后出现自然反弹，区间内每次上冲的高度和价差都在下降；下边界被 SOW 跌破后，反弹到原支撑附近缩量转弱。After a higher-timeframe decline, an automatic rally forms a range. Each rally becomes lower and narrower; an SOW breaks support and a lower-volume rally fails near former support.

  1. 01前置趋势向下。The prior trend is down.
  2. 02上冲效率持续降低。Rally efficiency keeps declining.
  3. 03SOW 有效离开区间。The SOW creates an effective departure.
  4. 04原支撑在 LPSY 中转为阻力。Former support acts as resistance at the LPSY.
哪个解释更符合现有证据？Which interpretation best fits the evidence?
08再派发Redistribution

高级Advanced

反弹越过阻力后失败，如何验证再派发？How is redistribution validated after a failed rally above resistance?

历史情景Historical scenario

下跌趋势中的区间短暂上破阻力，但没有持续需求，价格快速回落。随后二次上冲形成更低高点，向下突破支撑后出现弱反弹。A range inside a downtrend briefly breaks resistance without sustained demand and quickly falls back. A second rally forms a lower high, followed by a support break and weak rebound.

  1. 01前置主趋势仍向下。The governing trend remains down.
  2. 02上破没有需求跟随。The upside break has no demand follow-through.
  3. 03二次上冲形成更低高点。The second rally forms a lower high.
  4. 04SOW 后的反弹无法收回支撑。The rally after the SOW cannot reclaim support.
确认链的关键组合是什么？Which combination completes the confirmation chain?
09交易区间Trading range

基础Foundation

价格在区间中部，最好的判断可能是什么？What may be the best decision in the middle of a range?

历史情景Historical scenario

区间上下边界都被多次测试，但没有一方获得持续结果。价格位于中轴附近，波动收窄，成交量下降，大小周期方向暂时冲突。Both boundaries have been tested repeatedly without sustained result. Price is near the midpoint, volatility narrows, volume declines, and timeframes conflict.

  1. 01没有有效离开区间。There is no effective departure.
  2. 02中轴附近风险收益不清晰。Risk-reward is unclear near the midpoint.
  3. 03成交量下降没有给出方向。Lower volume provides no direction on its own.
  4. 04周期之间尚未形成一致。The timeframes are not aligned.
此时最符合体系的处理是什么？Which response is most consistent with the framework?
10多周期Multi-timeframe

进阶Intermediate

日线偏弱、四小时反弹，谁拥有决定权？Daily weakness, four-hour rally: which timeframe has authority?

历史情景Historical scenario

日线仍在供应主导的下降通道内，四小时出现 Spring 候选和短线 SOS。原始计划的判断周期是日线，但没有预先定义低周期何时可以改变主线。The daily chart remains inside a supply-led declining channel, while the four-hour chart shows a Spring candidate and short-term SOS. The governing timeframe is daily, with no rule allowing the lower timeframe to change it.

  1. 01日线主结构尚未被证伪。The daily structure has not been invalidated.
  2. 02四小时需求只在局部取得结果。Four-hour demand has produced only local result.
  3. 03没有预设周期切换规则。There is no predeclared timeframe-switching rule.
  4. 04局部反弹可能只是大周期回调。The local rally may only be a higher-timeframe correction.
最严谨的处理方式是什么？What is the most rigorous response?
11执行复盘Execution review

进阶Intermediate

方向后来正确，为什么交易仍然可能做错？Why can a trade still be wrong when the direction later proves correct?

历史情景Historical scenario

分析者判断高位存在派发风险，但在供应尚未确认时提前做空。价格先向上完成一次 UTAD，仓位被止损，随后行情才按原方向下跌。The analyst identifies distribution risk at a high location but shorts before supply is confirmed. Price first completes an UTAD, stops the position, and only later declines.

  1. 01高位方向假设后来得到验证。The high-level directional thesis is later validated.
  2. 02进场发生在确认之前。Entry occurred before confirmation.
  3. 03止损位置无法承受候选结构的正常波动。The stop could not tolerate normal candidate-structure volatility.
  4. 04后来下跌不能改写当时的执行条件。The later decline cannot rewrite the original execution conditions.
这笔交易应该如何评价？How should this trade be evaluated?
12错误复盘Error review

高级Advanced

趋势判断没有及时切换，错在哪里？Where does execution fail when the market regime changes?

历史情景Historical scenario

分析者原本判断回调做空，在 ETH 1840 附近看到放量跌不下去并平掉空单，却没有立即完成计划中的反手。后来确认 Spring／V 反后的 LPS，才在新周期重新做多。The analyst planned a pullback short, then closed near ETH 1,840 after high volume failed to produce lower prices, but did not complete the planned reversal. A new long was taken only after a later Spring/V-reversal LPS.

  1. 01供应努力没有产生新低。Supply effort failed to produce a new low.
  2. 02空单失效已经被识别并退出。The short thesis was recognized as invalid and exited.
  3. 03原计划包含回调做多，但当时没有执行。The original plan included a pullback long, but it was not executed.
  4. 04后续新结构确认后才恢复主多。The main long was restored only after a new structure confirmed.
最准确的错误分类是什么？What is the most accurate error classification?